Streetcar cost & ridership are in, west routes likely out

Today's open house for the First Hill Streetcar included the first detailed analysis of cost, ridership, and other impacts for the various routes that are under consideration.

Here's how they shake out:

• Two-way Broadway - Scores the highest overall, with the lowest construction cost, nearly the highest ridership, and fewest impacts to traffic and cyclists
• Broadway/12th Couplet - Scores in the middle of the pack, with slightly less ridership, slightly higher construction costs, and a big penalty for interfering with an existing cycling route.
• Boylston/Seneca & Boren/Seneca - The westernmost routes score lowest overall, with much higher construction costs, higher operating costs, and longer travel times. The one area they do better in is ridership, with the top numbers compared to other routes, although only 5% higher than Broadway in fully built-out conditions.

It's important to note that construction cost estimates on the westernmost routes on First Hill currently exceed the $132 million budget that is provided by Sound Transit. That means that the city would have to chip in its own money to build them, something that is very unlikely given the current state of city finances. The Boren/Seneca route is also the most expensive in terms of operating cost, coming in at a round value of $5 million, putting it perilously close to the $5.2 million value of the annual operating subsidy provided by Sound Transit. It's hard to see the city going forward with either option if those costs solidify at such high levels.

One interesting fact is how well the Broadway/12th route came out in terms of ridership. I think some people assumed it would be significantly lower, but it came within 1,000 to 2,000 riders in both the current conditions and future build-out conditions, with large overlap in the estimate ranges.

But based on current momentum, it looks like the final decision will come down to 2-way Broadway vs. Broadway/12th, and that 12th will be the big underdog.

You can see all this in person, ask questions, and state your route preferences at two more streetcar meetings this week.

Here's the full matrix of data presented on the 5 routes at the open house today. More details on the criteria used is contained in the document linked above.